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Dollar a tad softer as markets wait for Fed
  + stars: | 2024-04-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Japan's yen was at 158.05 per dollar, up nearly 0.2% in quiet trading with Tokyo markets closed for the first of the country's Golden Week holidays. "The bar is pretty high for a sustained hawkish surprise, which would in turn lift yields," he said, referring to the Fed. "The BOJ disappointment might be transcribed onto the FOMC insofar that they may be more undecided than decidedly hawkish." The Fed is seen holding its benchmark interest rate steady at 5.25%-to-5.5% at the April 30-May 1 meeting. Markets are also on guard for any intervention by Japanese authorities to contain the yen's nearly 11% fall this year.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Vishnu Varathan, Sterling Organizations: U.S, Bank of, Mizuho Bank, Market Committee Locations: Japan, Tokyo, Bank of Japan, Asia, Singapore
SINGAPORE – Asia-Pacific's tech sector has been growing on the back of the semiconductor boom even as other industries struggle amid global macro uncertainty, according to investment bank JPMorgan. "Tech has been recovering, that's why Asia has done reasonably well in the second half of last year. China industry benefited, North Asia obviously benefited more from it," Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan said in a media briefing on Tuesday. Global tech spending weakened in 2023 while layoffs rose, said Deloitte in a report on tech industry's 2024 outlook. The recovery in tech is significant as other industries are still struggling.
Persons: Bruce Kasman, Deloitte, Ong Sin Beng Organizations: JPMorgan, Tech, Global, Deloitte, Nvidia Locations: SINGAPORE – Asia, that's, Asia, China, North Asia, U.S
Starting Feb. 5, the People's Bank of China will allow banks to hold smaller cash reserves, central bank governor Pan Gongsheng said at a press conference, his first in the role. Cutting the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 50 basis points is set to release 1 trillion yuan ($139.8 billion) in long-term capital, the central bank said. A 2 trillion yuan boost? Chinese Premier Li Qiang on Monday called for much stronger measures to boost market stability and confidence, according to an official readout. Chinese authorities in October already announced the issuance of 1 trillion yuan in government bonds, alongside a rare increase in the deficit.
Persons: Gongsheng, Pan Gongsheng, Tao Wang, Ting Lu, a, Lu, Wang, Stocks, Winnie Wu, That's, Li Qiang, Pan, Philip Yin, David Chao, Pan's Organizations: People's Bank of China, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Financial, Getty, Visual China, People's Bank of, UBS Investment Bank, Wednesday, National Financial Regulatory Administration, UBS, Bank of America's, Bloomberg, PBOC, Citi, U.S, Asia Pacific, CNBC Locations: BEIJING, CHINA, Beijing, China, People's Bank of China, Asia, Hong Kong, capitulating, Japan, Invesco
A war over Taiwan could wipe out 6.7% from the US economy in its first year, according to a Bloomberg Economics analysis. AdvertisementThe US economy could take a major hit if war breaks out over Taiwan, according to a Bloomberg Economics analysis published on Tuesday. US GDP could take a 6.7% hit in the first year of conflict if Washington gets drawn into the war, Bloomberg forecasts. AdvertisementOverall, a war over Taiwan could hit the world's economy to the tune of $10 trillion — or about 10% of global GDP — Bloomberg forecasts. Bloomberg Economics' analysis is based on geopolitical considerations and economic modeling.
Persons: , Xi Jinping, William Lai Ching, Lai, Vishnu Varathan Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Democratic Progressive Party, Mizuho Bank Locations: Taiwan, China, Washington, South Korea, Japan, Beijing, Asia
China is drafting a "white list" of property developers for bank financing, per Bloomberg. China's massive property sector is in a slump, adding to the country's post-COVID economic woes. AdvertisementChina's finally starting to do something about the three-year property crisis that's been weighing on its COVID-scarred economy. China's real-estate sector has been mired in a crisis since the second half 2021 when a liquidity crisis at Evergrande — once China's second-largest developer — came into public view. AdvertisementStill, not everyone is convinced Beijing's property "white list" will be the solution to China's property problems.
Persons: , China's, Nomura, it's, Rory Green, Green, White Knight, Vishnu Varathan Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, BI, Mizuho Bank, Business Locations: China, Beijing, Asia
Jordanian Dinar, Yuan, Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Pound and Riyals banknotes are seen in this picture illustration taken June 13, 2017. JP Morgan analyst Sin Beng Ong in a note on the pressure it was putting on emerging Asia markets. RICHARD MCGUIRE, HEAD OF RATES STRATEGY, RABOBANK, LONDON:“The markets reflect effectively flying blind because the models don't work, everybody's been calling for a recession that just simply refuses to arrive. "Our view is that the U.S. economy slows into next year... so from that perspective, at some point, we expect it (bond market selloff) to normalise." (Compiled by the Global Finance & Markets Breaking News team)Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Yuan, Dado Ruvic, BENG ONG, JP Morgan, Sin Beng Ong, RICHARD MCGUIRE, everybody's, you've, VIKRAM AGGARWAL, ” JUAN VALENZUELA, ARTEMIS, , ” NICK NELSON Organizations: REUTERS, OF, JPMORGAN, RABOBANK, LONDON, Federal Reserve, Global Finance, Markets, Thomson Locations: Treasuries, ASIA, SINGAPORE, Asia, U.S
Hong Kong CNN —Evergrande Group has just missed another bond payment, casting further doubt over the future of the embattled property developer at the epicenter of China’s real estate crisis. China’s property industry once accounted for as much as 30% of the country’s gross domestic product. Questions about financial stabilityConcerns over China’s economic stability have resurfaced, driven by the deepening financial crisis at Evergrande, said Stephen Innes, managing partner of SPI Asset Management. On Sunday, Evergrande surprised investors with an announcement that it was unable to issue new notes due to the investigation into Hengda. It was the first criminal probe launched against Evergrande since it was hit by the debt crisis nearly two years ago.
Persons: Evergrande, Tao Wang, Stephen Innes, , Innes, Mengchen Zhang, Marc Stewart Organizations: Hong Kong CNN — Evergrande, Shenzhen Stock Exchange, Getty, China, Asia Economics, UBS, CNN, Evergrande Locations: China, Hong Kong, AFP, Asia, Evergrande
Greg Baker | Afp | Getty ImagesBEIJING — Without more stimulus, China is increasingly likely to miss its growth target of around 5% this year, economists said. "In such a case, economic momentum may stay subdued in the rest of the year and China may miss this year's growth target of around 5%," she said. China is the world's second-largest economy, and accounted for nearly 18% of global GDP in 2022, according to World Bank data. "We also see bigger downside risk to our 4.9% y-o-y growth forecast for both Q3 and Q4, and it is increasingly possible that annual GDP growth this year will miss the 5.0% mark," the report said. Growth vs. national securityChinese authorities' initial crackdown on real estate developers in 2020 was an attempt to curb their high reliance on growth.
Persons: Greg Baker, Tao Wang, spender, Nomura Ting Lu, Ting Lu, haven't, Louise Loo, Loo, that's, Xiangrong Yu, Gabriel Wildau, Teneo, Wildau Organizations: Afp, Getty, UBS Investment Bank, Bank, China, People's Bank of, Oxford Economics, Zhongrong International Trust, Information, Beijing, CNBC, Baoshang Bank, Anbang Locations: Beijing, BEIJING, China, Asia, People's Bank of China
The 0.2% fall month-on-month came after June's flat reading, according to Reuters calculations based on National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data. The decline in home prices comes amid a worsening debt crisis at major developers, sliding property investment and home sales. Among 70 cities, 49 saw a fall in new home prices month-on-month in July from 38 cities the previous month. However, most economists expect the downside trend in home sales and prices to persist for while. "Without additional major policy easing and/or fiscal support, property sales and investment may weaken further or stay at the bottom for longer than assumed in our baseline," said Wang.
Persons: Jason Lee, Goldman Sachs, Wang Tao, Wang, Qiaoyi Li, Liangping Gao, Ryan Woo, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, National Bureau of Statistics, Goldman, Asia Economics, China, UBS Investment Bank, Thomson Locations: Wangjing, China, BEIJING, Zhengzhou, Xian, Fuzhou
Bank of Japan likely to adjust yield curve control in July: Citi
  + stars: | 2023-07-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBank of Japan likely to adjust yield curve control in July: CitiJohanna Chua, Citi global markets head of Asia economics and strategy, says, however, that an adjustment may have a "signaling effect" but wouldn't be a "tightening."
Persons: Citi Johanna Chua Organizations: Email Bank of, Citi Locations: Email Bank of Japan, Asia
Investors worry about market ructions if Ueda hikes rates now but there is another risk: that he waits too long. Reuters GraphicsUeda’s inaction – and the domestic markets’ positive response – have bought him time to focus on evaluating macroeconomic fundamentals, particularly inflation. The country only emerged from a decades-long deflationary rut relatively recently, so local economists, executives and consumers are unused to worrying about consumer prices rising too fast. The government’s latest draft of its long-term economic plan, seen by Reuters on June 2, remains focused on eradicating Japan's “long-held deflationary mindset”. "We expect inflation to quite clearly slow below 2%" toward the middle of the current fiscal year, Ueda told parliament.
Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Haruhiko Kuroda, Ueda, , , Richard Koo, Shinzo Abe, Francesco Guerrera, Katrina Hamlin Organizations: Reuters, Bank of Japan, Nikkei, Nasdaq, Bank for International, Toyota, Toshiba, Black Monday, Japan Inc, International Monetary Fund, of, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Japan, United States, U.S, Great, China, Europe, Germany, Italy, of Japan’s
HONG KONG, May 31 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Elon Musk may be China’s most popular American. State media quoted Musk saying the United States and China share “inseparable” interests and that Tesla opposes decoupling. This all provides the $638 billion Tesla with good political cover in the world’s largest automobile market. But for now Beijing and Musk are getting what they want out of the arrangement, and that means it is likely to endure. Reuters GraphicsFollow @petesweeneypro and @KatrinaHamlin on TwitterCONTEXT NEWSTesla Chief Executive Elon Musk visited China on May 30 for the first time since 2020.
Persons: Elon, Qin Gang, Musk, Xi Jinping, Elon Musk, Apple's Tim Cook, JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon, Laxman Narasimhan, Robyn Mak, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Foreign, Chinese Communist Party, Tesla’s, Twitter, CCP, SpaceX, Starbucks, Thomson Locations: HONG KONG, Beijing, Shanghai, China, Japan, Republic, India, Turkey, People’s Republic, United States, Washington
HONG KONG, May 25 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Foreigners that once piled into offshore Chinese equities are evacuating as confidence in the country’s economic recovery sags. The China trade has always been unbalanced towards overseas-listed Chinese consumer and internet firms, and foreigners preferred building factories, acquiring large stakes in companies and the like over portfolio trading. Even at a peak in 2021, they held barely over 8 trillion yuan ($1.1 trillion) of yuan-denominated Chinese stocks and bonds, per official data, compared to $27 trillion of American equivalents. Now the former figure has fallen below 7 trillion yuan. Major Chinese indexes in Hong Kong and New York have also slid, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index having lost around 15% in the last three months.
Irked by the G7 statements, Xi’s government has already called Japan’s ambassador on the carpet. To be sure, China, with a $90 billion monthly trade surplus hovering near record highs, cannot easily retaliate against its opponents. But it is not in Xi’s, or Chinese companies’, interests to sit back and let the G7 “de-risk”, and that makes the euphemism more threatening than it sounds. China firmly opposes the G7 joint statement and has complained to summit organiser Japan, the Chinese foreign ministry said on the same day. The ministry said that the G7, disregarding China's concerns, had attacked it and interfered in its internal affairs, including Taiwan.
HONG KONG, May 10 (Reuters Breakingviews) - ValueAct Capital’s chief Mason Morfit prefers to chide undervalued conglomerates behind closed doors. In its latest 151-page presentation, ValueAct took its case directly to shareholders, the second time it has seen fit to do so in its history. That highlights the U.S. fund’s frustration from its two-year long campaign calling for Seven & i to spin off its 7-Eleven convenience stores, among other things. That implies a standalone 7-Eleven could be worth 10 trillion yen, roughly a quarter more than its parent today. He may have a point, and in truth ValueAct has far more experience turning around technology companies than food retailers.
In recent months, Chinese investigators have detained employees of U.S. due-diligence firm Mintz Group, visited consultancy Bain & Company and suspended auditor Deloitte’s Beijing operations for three months. Security watchdogs have restricted overseas access to financial data providers like Wind Information, as well as academic database China National Knowledge Infrastructure. Local banks loaned 3.9 trillion yuan ($560 billion) in March alone while corporations issued 328 billion yuan of bonds. Besides Wind, other Chinese data providers including company databases Qichacha and TianYanCha have stopped opening to offshore users, according to three of the sources. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
HONG KONG, April 24 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Hong Kong’s currency peg to the greenback is stuck between a rock and a hard place. In the past 12 months, the de-facto central bank has stepped in to buy Hong Kong dollars from the market roughly 40 times. Some foreign financiers, including Pershing Square boss Bill Ackman, argue Hong Kong’s financial system can’t sustain the peg and question its rationale. But in the long run, demand for Hong Kong dollars depends on confidence in its economic strategy. Hong Kong’s peg is durable enough for now, but its future is in doubt nevertheless.
The risk is the shopping recovery gets bifurcated between luxury purchases and basic needs, leaving out big-ticket middle-class items. Meanwhile, Chinese savers added another 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) to their household deposits in the first quarter, reinforcing concerns that they will keep hoarding instead of splurging. Bank loans hit an all-time high of 10.6 trillion yuan in the first quarter, yet that did not appear to translate into private investment in fixed assets, which is barely growing. In a speech in March, Cai Fang, a member of the central bank’s monetary policy committee, suggested transferring 4 trillion yuan directly to households to compensate for weak income growth. If the first quarter’s print turns out to be misleadingly rosy, China’s reopening boom could quiet down quickly.
Yet most trade measures Xi has taken so far are best seen as defensive tactics to protect market share from aspirant rivals in the West and India. The easiest option is picking on America’s $120-billion-plus of direct investment stock in China. Of course, that is no way for China to revive the decaying quantity and quality of the investment it receives. Chinese officials consistently say they welcome U.S. trade and investment and there is no reason to doubt them. The move comes after the United States implemented multiple restrictions on sales of chipmaking tools and components to China.
HONG KONG, March 31 (Reuters Breakingviews) - As an $18 trillion economy home to 1.4 billion people, China is a natural font of statistical superlatives. The country’s internet giants, however, are dwarfed by American colossi like the $1.3 trillion Google owner Alphabet (GOOGL.O). Access to cheap capital helped founders like Alibaba’s Jack Ma quickly diversify and build sprawling empires with global ambitions. Meanwhile, the top eight U.S. tech names, led by Apple (AAPL.O), Microsoft (MSFT.O) and Alphabet, are worth $8 trillion today. The American tech giants already generate three times more revenue and nearly five times more free cash flow than their aspirant Chinese challengers, Refinitiv Eikon data shows.
The final quarter saw a slight rebound, but American FDI into China has been slowing for years. Despite their suspicions of the U.S. government, Chinese officials don’t want American capitalists to stop investing in the country because their firms create jobs, bring technology and best practices. Anecdotal evidence suggests even in harmless industries like textiles and market research, decoupling is becoming the default American investment thesis. If China surprises by dramatically boosting internal demand, U.S. executives and their shareholders will be placated. Cook is in Beijing to attend the China Development Forum, a flagship investment conference organised by the government and held March 25-27.
HONG KONG, March 21 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The crisis at Credit Suisse has traders wondering who’s next. Japanese lenders, with their staid depositor bases, look like unlikely targets for bank runs. Yet the rising cost of short-term dollar and euro credit, combined with extreme yen volatility, have made hedging much more expensive. Domestic commercial lenders alone held $600 billion of international debt securities at the end of 2022, and some look overexposed. Take Japan Post Bank (7182.T), a $32 billion institution whose parent is partly owned by the Ministry of Finance.
HONG KONG, March 16 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Incoming Bank of Japan (8301.T) Governor Kazuo Ueda can breathe a sigh of relief; things aren’t going very well. Ripples from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank have shoved down sovereign bond yields, inadvertently driving off an attack by traders who believed global inflation made rate hikes unavoidable. This year, however, spiking energy costs have pushed the core consumer index excluding fresh food over 4%, double the BOJ’s target. Consumer price inflation including energy but excluding fresh food touched 4.2% in January, a 41-year high. Core consumer inflation has now exceeded the Bank of Japan's 2% target for nine straight months.
HONG KONG, March 6 (Reuters Breakingviews) - China aims to grow GDP by “around 5%” in 2023, which might seem low given last year’s 3% marked the country’s weakest performance in decades. Chen Long of Plenum China notes that the annual work report, usually an important window into the economy and official priorities for the year ahead, dedicates only six pages to discussing the future, compared to 22 pages last year. That may be because Premier Li Keqiang, who gives the work report, is on his way out along with other reformers. By keeping goals conservative and methods vaguer than usual, the government makes it harder for newcomers to fail. The government is aiming for a 2023 budget deficit target of 3% of gross domestic product, according to the report, widening from a deficit goal of around 2.8% last year.
HONG KONG, Feb 27 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The open-source software movement has been an unprecedented driver of global innovation and productivity growth. As with most Chinese handset makers, founder Ren Zhengfei relied on Android’s open-source code to run his company’s smartphones. Beijing has reciprocated, per a Nikkei report, by instructing its own tech companies not to incorporate ChatGPT into their platforms - a rare example of a mutual firewall. Dividing the world into competing open-source camps would mark another reverse for free trade. Follow @petesweeneypro on TwitterCONTEXT NEWSRegulators have told major Chinese tech companies not to offer ChatGPT services, the Nikkei news service reported on Feb. 22 citing sources with direct knowledge, causing shares in Chinese companies building chatbots to fall.
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